hdr_pe_unofficial

ELECTION RESULTS:

Ads are placed by Google. No endorsement by President Elect should be inferred.



MAJOR NEWS REGARDING FUTURE SITE UPDATES! PRESIDENT ELECT IS MOVING...

2012 Electoral Map Analysis - August 6, 2012
by James R Whitson

With under 100 days until the election things are a complete toss-up! So many states are too close to call. With the electorate so split this race will come down to turnout.

Ohio seems to always be a swing state and they are on the move once again. The race there has been so close there the past few analyses that I've been hesitant to move it for fear of having to switch it from red to blue to red to blue every time! While there is no clear big movement towards Obama this month, neither is there any move to Romney. So rather than keep it where it is for stability's sake and since Ohio has a clear history of not being araid to switch sides each election I'm going to start being a little more active about where I put it each month. It could change literally change tomorrow but right now Obama has a small lead so the state is back to blue for he time being.

Florida is another huge toss-up state. While it is in the midst of a slight leftward tilt it is not yet quite enough to overcome its Republican leanings, but keep a close eye on it. Colorado is just the opposite, moving right almost enough to flip its color but for the moment it stays in the Democratic camp.

Wisconsin and Michigan are still much closer than I would have expected. But they'll need a large and sustained Romney lead before I'd be willing to bet against their historical voting tendency. Virginia and North Carolina are still right leaning, but Virginia especially could be an easy steal for the Democrats.

Bucking the toss-up trend, Missouri is moving out of the leaning category and into solid Romney territory. Oregon and Pennsylvania may soon do the same for Obama.

As I said at the beginning, turnout may be the big deciding factor in this close race. And though I don't really track it I have to say my feeling right now is the right is much more fired up to go to the polls than the left. With the election looking to be so close it wouldn't even take much of a blip in turnout on one side to completely flip the election. That's definitely a factor to be looking at right now along with the polls.

view previous analyses...

 

AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY