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On July 5th, Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, selected freshman Senator John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate for the 2004 Presidential Election. But if Kerry thinks that this is going to swing North Carolina into the Democratic column on Election Day, then he might have to reconsider his strategy. North Carolina is hardly what one would consider to be a battleground state. North Carolina last went for a Democrat, like most of the country, in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won easily over his perceivedly radical Republican challenger, Arizona's Barry Goldwater. Since then, North Carolina has been a reliable Republican state, with the exception of supporting Carter in 1976. So what makes Kerry think he can swing North Carolina when Missouri (Gephardt) or Arkansas (Clark) or even Florida (Graham) might have made for an easier time of it? President Bush MUST win Missouri and Florida and Ohio. Kerry could have selected someone from one of those swing states, even if to force the Bush-Cheney forces into fighting harder for it. Instead, he selected someone from a state he can't possibly win. Hmmm. Wasn't Kerry Dukakis' lieutenant governor in '88? Didn't he realize from Dukakis' mistake of taking Lloyd Bentsen of Texas? And, of course, in November 1988, Michael Dukakis lost Texas by 680,000 votes. Some help Bentsen was! But not all Democratic candidates for President have done badly in North Carolina. In 1976, North Carolina supported Jimmy Carter with its 13 electoral votes. Carter beat Ford on election night with 297 to 240 electoral votes. But after all, Carter was a Southerner. And he was a different kind of political figure than had been seen in the past with the previous 3 presidents: Johnson, Nixon, and Ford--all career politicians with considerable political baggage. And Carter did sweep the South in 1976 except Virginia and Oklahoma. Perhaps Senator Kerry is relying on a repeat of history of sorts. Maybe a Southern Veep could do the same, yes? Well, if that's the case then just what happened to North Carolina when another Southern governor, like Carter, named Bill Clinton ran for President and didn't swing North Carolina into the 'D' column? Couldn't John Kerry look at recent history and decide that John Edwards might not be as effective? Prior to Johnson's landslide win in 1964, North Carolina was staunchly Democratic. With the exception of Herbert Hoover's win in 1928, North Carolina never deviated from supporting the Democratic candidate. Even popular Dwight Eisenhower lost North Carolina twice in '52 and '56. But North Carolina would support his Vice President, Richard Nixon, in his two wins in '68 and '72 when the state became more conservative. Maybe Kerry believes that the South is ready to swing back and that Edwards is the key to doing just that. Obviously, a Kerry-Edwards win in North Carolina would be crushing for the Bush-Cheney ticket. North Carolina is critical and a cornerstone in holding together the 'Solid South' that will usually go Republican--when the Democratic candidate is not one of its own (see Mondale 1984 and Dukakis 1988). Conventional wisdom holds that if one can push a staunch Republican state like North Carolina into the 'D' column, what's to keep maybe Tennessee or even Florida out? Gore nearly won Florida in 2000, which Clinton won easily in '96 by about 300,000 votes (but lost by 100,000 four years earlier). Tennessee went for Clinton by about 90,000 in '92 and 50,000 in '96. Yet, Gore lost it by 80,000 in 2000. Perhaps Mr. Gore was perceived as being too long in Washington to be considered a Southern Democrat. John Edwards has only been in Washington for 5 years as North Carolina's senior senator. He won't have the baggage Gore had. It's possible he may have a quite different effect on the South in this campaign. But more than likely not. Where Dick Gephardt's union ties and representation of Missouri's largest city in Congress might have gone a long way to pulling the Show-Me state into the 'D' column, John Edwards has no such claim on North Carolina. Conservative--didn't vote for Clinton-nor-Gore--North Carolina. The same North Carolina who's junior senator is one Senator Elizabeth Hanford Dole, the wife of the former 1996 Republican Presidential nominee and longtime Senator from conservative Kansas, Robert Dole. If history is any indication, North Carolina will remain Republican this year and for the foreseeable future. Senator Kerry has taken a large gamble on trying to capture North Carolina. And it looks like he's going to lose.
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