President Elect 2008 Electoral College Projection (4/7/2008)

President Elect's analysis of the 2008 Electoral College vote, pitting presumptive Republican nominee John McCain against probable Democratic nominee Barack Obama, shows that if the election were today the United States would be electing its first black President.

President Elect projects that Senator Obama will win 275 electoral votes and Senator McCain will win 263.

This map has taken a definite Republican swing since the previous one. The main reason for this is the drawn out campaign for the Democratic nomination. I delayed the first electoral analysis back in March hoping the race would clear up a bit. It didn't. I certainly assumed back then that after 5 weeks we would have a victor. We don't. And the next primary isn't for another two weeks! While the Democrats are fighting amongst themselves the Republicans are lining up behind McCain. Had the Democrats settled their nomination sooner they could have taken advantage of the split that formed in the Republican party as McCain was wrapping up his bid. Instead conservatives have had plenty of time to put their differences aside without any interference from the Democrats.

However things aren't all good for the Republicans. While they have picked up a huge chunk of votes since last month's analysis they do not have as solid a foundation to work from as Obama does. With 221 solid votes behind them, the Democrats just need to get 49 more to win the White House - a feat they can accomplish by picking up as little as three states. The Republicans on the other hand have only 154 solid votes to work from - they'll need a formidable 116 more to keep the presidency. If the Democrats can consolidate behind one candidate soon they could easily pull way back in front.

By the way, I'll explain why I chose to use Obama over Clinton for this analysis when my blog re-launches. Look for it some time in the next two weeks.