President Elect 2008 Electoral College Projection (7/17/2008)

President Elect's analysis of the 2008 Electoral College vote, pitting Republican Senator John McCain against Democratic Senator Barack Obama, shows that if the election were today the United States would be electing its first black President.

President Elect projects that Senator Obama will win 293 electoral votes and Senator McCain will win 245.

While the changes in this map are minor (only Colorado and Iowa have changed colors) that doesn't mean there is not a lot going on. This has been a very difficult election to predict. Volatility has become the norm. But very soon things are going to start settling down so the candidates need to dial in their messages to the voters during the coming month. Here's where to watch:

Ohio and Florida -- I know, not them again! But once again they are razor tight. I could have probably picked red or blue for either of these states and been happy with that prediction.

Colorado and New Mexico -- Obama is doing very well in these states and has a really good shot at picking them off from the Republicans. However, we'll see whether that fact might fire up the large numbers of Republicans in the states as we get closer to the election.

New Hampshire -- McCain is doing better than I would have expected. It's very possible he could pull this one off.

Wisconsin, Georgia, and Oregon -- These are long shots. But if any locks are in play it'll be one of these.