President Elect 2008 Electoral College Projection (8/17/2008)

President Elect's analysis of the 2008 Electoral College vote, pitting Republican Senator John McCain against Democratic Senator Barack Obama, shows that if the election were today the United States would be electing its first black President.

President Elect projects that Senator Obama will win 293 electoral votes and Senator McCain will win 245.

While the overall map is essentially unchanged since last month, big changes could be brewing. There are many surprise states that are now in play for both candidates. On some I could have went either way but for the time being have kept them at least in te same shade of color! Why? Mainly because historically theses states have voted one way and I want to make sure this is more than just a blip in the polls before shifting colors completely. Here's what's changed:

- North and South Dakota: switch from solid McCain to leaning McCain. This could be a big problem. The Dakota's have been fairly safe states for Republicans (in presidential elections) and this crack in the solid red states could mean a more major shift is about to occur.

- Minnesota and Iowa: switch from solid Obama to leaning Obama. Along with Wisconsin and Michigan going light blue recently this move ,while not as surprising as the Dakotas, is still worrying for the Democrats. It appears that the same shift that recently saw West Virginia slip to the Republicans could be occurring here -- white, working class voters who don't share as much with the Democratic Party as they used too.

- North Carolina: switch from solid McCain to leaning McCain. Not a big shock. NC has moved easily between parties, nationally and locally, the past couple of decades. And both parties would dearly like to have it this time.

Other states that are definitely in play and could see a switch in shades or colors soon: Alaska, Virginia, and Colorado.

Starting today the electoral analysis schedule will be accelerated. And with all this uncertainty in the polls we couldn't be starting at a more interesting time! Look for the next update in two weeks.