President Elect 2008 Electoral College Projection (10/24/2008)

President Elect's analysis of the 2008 Electoral College vote, pitting Republican Senator John McCain against Democratic Senator Barack Obama, shows that if the election were today the United States would be electing its first black President.

President Elect projects that Senator Obama will win 338 electoral votes and Senator McCain will win 200.

The only actual change on the map this week is Indiana which is tightening up a bit. Obama appears to be doing a fairly good job of holding what he has in the last two weeks, which is all he has to do to win. McCain is making progress in the electorally huge states of Ohio and Florida.

But with 11 days to go until the election, this race may be all but over. Why? Let's go ahead and assume McCain can pull Florida's 27 votes and Ohio's 20 votes from Obama. Let's further assume he also gets the 18 votes from the Obama leaning states of Virginia and Nevada, and holds onto the 42 votes of his leaning states of North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and West Virginia. Even if he were to somehow pull that off (which would be a spectacular feat with less than two weeks left) he still would not have enough votes to win. Obama only has to hold the 2004 Kerry states (which he is doing with ease) and then pick off New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado -- all states he is doing very well in.

Everyone loves to speculate about tie scenarios so here is just about the only one left -- though it is looking very unlikely at this point! If McCain can take Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado -- and hold his current states -- we'd have a 269-269 tie.