President Elect 2008 Electoral College Projection (10/28/2008)

President Elect's analysis of the 2008 Electoral College vote, pitting Republican Senator John McCain against Democratic Senator Barack Obama, shows that if the election were today the United States would be electing its first black President.

President Elect projects that Senator Obama will win 338 electoral votes and Senator McCain will win 200.

Very much unlike the elections of 2000 and 2004 where I mentioned in just about every update in the few weeks before the election that the electorate seemed to be switching allegiances with every new poll, this election year shows a steadiness of opinion. There has been no major movement in the past two weeks. Several leaning states are seeing things tighten up, so don't get complacent yet if your candidate has one of them in his column. Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia, and Florida are leaning a little more towards McCain. But Missouri and North Carolina could soon be on Obama's side. Even North Dakota is starting to move slightly towards a lighter shade of red!

The bad news for McCain -- and great news for Obama -- is that even if McCain picks up those states and holds the rest, he still is not close to having enough votes to win.