Q	Why do you have the Democratic states red and the Republican states blue? Everyone knows the Democrats' color is blue and the Republicans' color is red.

This is the most frequently asked question I get! Keep in mind that I started the site well before the 2000 election. Before then I doubt many people could remember what colors were used on network electoral maps! "The Red States" and "The Blue States" weren't common phrases well known by the average person. Even the press rarely used the terms. And the reason is simlple - it has not always been that way. In fact in past elections they could have coined the phrases "White States" and "Yellow States" based on different colors used by different media outlets! Check out this Wikipedia page or this Washington Post article for more info on how it used to be.

As for me, I watched my first election night as a kid in 1980, and I loved the colored map in the background. During subsequent elections I made my own map so I could keep track. I always used blue for Republicans and red for Democrats. I did this because that is the way it was in my memory of the 1980 election. There was also a computer game in the 1980's called "President Elect" and that game used blue for Republicans and red for Democrats. So, I basically do it for personal nostalgic reasons!

I'd often considered switching the colors since a lot of political junkies are used to them being the other way around. But I worry that I might be more prone to make mistakes on the site if I don't use the colors my brain is used to. Even on election night I have to make a conscious effort to remember which color goes with which party on the TV networks!

But with an update of the site graphics and style in progress I have decided to go ahead and switch the colors on the map since so many people have requested it. Republicans will now be red and Democrats will be blue. As each previous election page is updated the historic maps will also be redone to match.

The Electoral Map Analysis is my personal view of how the election is panning out. It is based solely on my opinions. I look at polling data, past elections, the campaigns, and anything else I think might effect the outcome. In the end, I choose how all 50 states and DC will be colored. I consider the final analysis to be the "Official Projection of President Elect".

The Computer Analysis is exactly what it sounds like: a computer decides how all 50 states and DC will be colored. The analysis is based on a formula I created back in 2000. The results of each election from the past 40 years are used to determine a state's voting tendency. Then every week I input the latest state by state polling results. The computer crunches the numbers and spits out its projections. Other than having created the formula, I have no say in what the computer does with each analysis. I simply take what it gives me and dutifully report it - whether I agree with it or not.

The computer did a better job than me in predicting the 2000 election, but my analysis trumped the computer in 2004!

First of all let me defend our projections by mentioning a few facts about this site's history - if you'll allow me to brag a bit! President Elect was one of the first (non-commercial) websites to do Electoral College projections. Our first projection went up back in 1999, back in the days when most people were blissfully unaware of the Electoral College. And we start our projections well before other sites even are thinking about the election. For example, our first 2004 analysis went up in August of 2002. Last, but certanly not least, the 2004 analysis was the only predictor I ever found that stated the day before the election, with 100% accuracy, how every state ended up voting!

There are several reasons we don't update as often as some other sites. First, Electoral College projections are all but meaningless the further you are from election day. Our 2002 and 2003 analysis were basically just exercises in different hypothetical scenarios. Our 2004 updates were only released every few months at the beginning of the year because there were not many state-by-state polls to use, and because the information just wasn't that useful that far away from the election. As the election drew closer we started updating more often, but not more than once a week. Since state polls only come out a few at a time, it makes more sense to me to wait a week and gather them all together rather than waste time re-coloring a map because one state changes shades!

The second reason we don't update as often as other sites, and probably the more important reason, is that this is not an election projection site! I view President Elect as more of a historical record of past elections, and that is where my interests are. I do the current election page as a service to our readers who want an objective view of where the race stands from someone not trying to sell them on a particular candidate or a particular point of view. My goal is not to advance "my" candidate or to keep "my" side of the race informed on where things stand. What I try to do here is look at the race from a historical perspective, not a partisan perspective. I'm more interested in accurately predicting the results of the election than I am in seeing if I can help change the results.

Keeping up with all the candidates (including the third party ones!) and the state and national polls helps me develop a sense of where the election stands as an historical event. That is why I do this, and that is why I find doing non-stop updates is unnecessary for this site. That said, I have to admit I'm a bit of a junkie for election sites that do update at all hours of the day, every day of the week!

There is a logic to it, but I'm afraid you'll be disappointed if you're looking for bias!

The parties are listed in the order that they came in in the last election! They are listed first by electoral votes; if they have none, they are listed by popular votes. In 2000 the "second tier" parties popular vote order was GRN, REF, LIB, CON - that is the order I have listed them in during the campaign of 2004.

I did the same thing when I listed the candidates during the 2000 campaign. They were listed in the order they came in in 1996.

I get these types of emails all the time - from both sides of the political spectrum! Which proves to me that the site isn't biased at all if people of all leanings can find what they see as "bias"!

I get a 50/50 ratio of people accusing me of being biased toward the left or the right. But in the months after the 2000 election the ratio went up for conservative bias because I was defending the Electoral College and, therefore, must be a Bush supporter. What most failed to realize is that the site had been defending the Electoral College for over a year and a half before the 2000 election! In fact in the days leading up to that election when some analyists were predicting just the opposite of the actual result - that Bush would win the popular vote and Gore the electoral vote - I was just as strongly defending that possible outcome as I did the eventual outcome.

The site is not biased. More likely is you are letting your personal biases color what you are seeing.

Also please keep in mind that not everything on the Articles page was written by me! The article I assume you're complaining about ("An analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election of 2000") was written by one of our readers, and does have a bit of a leftward tilit to it. However, posted a day before that article was another analysis of the 2000 election ("The Founding Fathers' View of the 2000 Controversy") with a bit of a rightward tilt to it, also written by a reader.

I used to play that game too! I still have the original manual! The developer of the game, Nelson Hernandez, contacted me during the 2004 election and couldn't have been nicer. However, this site has no connection with the game, other than the game helping shape my views on the Electoral College. You might be able to find a copy on Apple II or Commodore emulation sites.

My analysis is not based purely on polling data. It is based on my (fairly educated and non-partisan!) opinion of what is going to happen. My opinion is, of course, based largely on current state by state polls (such as Rasmussen, Mason Dixon, Gallop, Zogby, local newspapers, etc). However, I also take into account (to a lesser extent) state voting trends, and other intangibles.

The computer analysis uses current state by state polling data and election results from the past 40 years.

I think the fact that both of our analyses use past voting tendencies in each state before making a prediction may have been one of the reasons we did so well compared to other outlets that made predictions in 2000. Though it is a little upsetting that the computer analysis was the best predictor of all - beating even me! You can see that scorecard online. And in 2004, my projections predicted with 100% accuracy how every state ended up voting!

Q	If John McCain was born in Panama because his father was in the military, please point out to me in the Constitution where that qualifies him as a natural born citizen.

You're asking the wrong question! Try to find in the Constitution the definition of natural born citizen! It's not there, which means Congress decides what that means. John McCain was born on the Coco Solo Naval Air Station in the U.S. controlled Panama Canal Zone in 1936. Military bases and embassies have long been considered U.S. soil and children born on them (to American parents) are automatically considered U.S. citizens. As for the Canal Zone, a law was passed in 1953 that declared:

"Any person born in the Canal Zone on or after February 26, 1904, and whether before or after the effective date of this chapter, whose father or mother or both at the time of the birth of such person was or is a citizen of the United States, is declared to be a citizen of the United States." (U.S. Code Title 8, Section 1403)

That doesn't mean it's settled though. Technically the issue has never been decided for determining presidential eligibility. But most think the rules that apply for every other aspect of citizenship apply to this requirement as well. In fact on April 30, 2008, the Senate unanimously passed a resolution stating that McCain was "a 'natural born Citizen' under Article II, Section 1, of the Constitution of the United States". But don't be surprised if some political group still tries to challenge it!

This issue has actually come up several times before but wasn't decided satisfactorily due to the candidates in question losing. For example, in 1964, Barry Goldwater was the Republican candidate for President. Although he was born in Arizona, it was not yet a state at the time.

Q	Who were the only two presidents to win every state?

George Washington and James Monroe.

In the very first election in 1789, electors were chosen in several different ways: two states held at large direct elections, two states held direct elections by district, four states had the state legislature make the choice, two states used a combination of direct voting and the legislature, and three states did not send electors. Also different in 1789 was the fact that each elector got to vote for two people for president. In the end there were 69 electors from 10 states, and every one of them placed Washington's name on their ballot.

In 1792, three states held at large direct elections, two states held direct elections by district, nine states had the state legislature make the choice, and one state used a combination of direct voting and the legislature. From 15 states, each of the 132 electors once again listed Washington as one of the two names on their ballot.

By 1820, electors cast separate ballots for president and vice president. Nine states chose electors by at large direct election, six states had direct elections by district, and nine states had the legislature make the decision. Monroe, running unopposed for reelection, won every state and should have won every elector. However, even though Monroe won the at large election in New Hampshire, one of his electors instead voted for John Quincy Adams.

Q	If someone were to decide to run now, but not on the Democratic or Republican tickets, what is the process for declaring candidacy and getting on the ballot?

Third party or independent candidates only need to worry about getting on the actual November election ballots. Independents just say they're running and then get to work on getting their name on the ballots state by state. Third party candidates would need to go through their individual party methods for declaring and then win that nomination - usually during a spring/summer convention.

For more information on the actual process independents and third parties have to go through to get on the ballot for the general election, visit Ballot Access News - a wonderful site dedicated to reporting about the efforts non-Democrats and Republicans are required to take to participate in elections.

Article II Section 1 of the Constitution says that in order to be eligible to become president candidates must:

1) be a natural born Citizen,
2) be at least thirty five years old, and
3) have been a resident within the United States for fourteen years.

Ronald Reagan was 69 years old on election day 1980 (25,474 days old to be exact). On election day 1984 he was 73 (26,937 days).

That depends on how you interpret "a minority of the popular vote"!

If you mean how many times has the winner not won a majority of the popular vote - or more than 50% - then it has happened more often than you might think! 18 times!

1824 John Quincy Adams
1844 James Polk
1848 Zachary Taylor
1856 James Buchanan
1860 Abraham Lincoln
1876 Rutherford B. Hayes
1880 James Garfield
1884 Grover Cleveland
1888 Benjamin Harrison
1892 Grover Cleveland
1912 Woodrow Wilson
1916 Woodrow Wilson
1948 Harry Truman
1960 John F. Kennedy
1968 Richard Nixon
1992 Bill Clinton
1996 Bill Clinton
2000 George W. Bush

If you mean how many times has the winner not won a plurality of the popular vote - or more than his opponents - then the answer is 4.

1824 John Quincy Adams
1876 Rutherford B. Hayes
1888 Benjamin Harrison
2000 George W. Bush

There is no law or Constitutional requirement that says the Chief Justice has to swear in the President. It is just a tradition, not a neccesity. The oath has been given by someone other than the Chief Justice 8 times, most recently in 1963 when Lyndon Johnson was given the oath by a local judge in Dallas aboard Air Force One after the assassination of John Kennedy.

A candidate must win a majority of the electoral votes to become president. Currently, that means at least 270 votes are needed to win - a majority of the total of 538 votes.

As you noted, we get the numbers for the Electoral College from Congress.
100 Senators + 435 Representatives = 535.
But there are 538 electoral votes!

The District of Columbia does not have full official representation in Congress. The 435 official members of the House and the 100 Senators all represent the various 50 states.

The other 3 votes come from the The 23rd Amendment to the Constitution which states that DC is allowed to appoint electors to the Electoral College. The number they are allowed is equal to the "number of Senators and Representatives in Congress to which the District would be entitled if it were a State", but no more than "than the least populous State". Since several states only have 3 votes, DC can have no more than 3 votes even if their population would normally warrant more.

BTW - The District of Columbia does have one non-voting member in the House, but this person is not a full-fledged Representative, and is in fact not even called a Representative - they are called the DC Delegate.

The Electoral College has tied only once - in 1800.

The Constitution didn't originally envision two candidates running together as a President/Vice Presidential team. Back then whoever got a majority of the electoral votes won and whoever came in second became vice president.

When Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr ran together as running mates, they apparently forgot to factor in that they would probably get the same number of votes running as a team! They tied 73-73. Burr, who was supposed to be the VP candidate decided he might win the presidency and fought for it in the House election. It took the Representatives 36 ballots over 6 days to finally declare Jefferson the winner.

This election led to the ratifiacation of the 12th Amendment which changed the electoral process to the one we use today.

You are correct. In almost every state they will not split the electoral votes even if both candidates are within 1% of each other! But you asked "Why can't the votes be split in case of a close race"? The answer is they can be! The Constitution allows each state legislature to decide how to allocate their electoral votes. If Idaho or California wanted to, they could simply pass a law that says they will split their electoral votes according to the percentage of votes won by each candidate! In fact two states already do something similar. In Maine and Nebraska, the candidate who wins the state gets only 2 electoral votes. The rest of the votes are allocated based on which candidates wins in each Congressional district!

The candidates' lists of potential electors are not secret. Several states post the lists of electors on their websites. You should be able to get the list by writing or calling your state board of elections.

The same thing that happens when there is not a tie in the popular vote - nothing! The Electoral College elects the president. The nation-wide popular vote has no legal significance in our electoral system so a tie would not effect anything, nor require a recount.

Now a tie in the popular vote within a state? That does matter! If a state had a tie in its popular vote, they would have a recount. If (after what would probably be several recounts) the vote was still tied, then state law would govern as to what happens next.

That depends on when the candidate dies. If he were to die AFTER the Electoral College votes (December 15 in 2008), then his vice presidential running mate would become president. If he were to die BEFORE the Electoral College votes, then the electors would pick whoever they wanted to vote for. So, technically, someone who didn't even run could be elected president! In practice, the party of the deceased candidate would decide what to do and ask their electors to honor that decision.

Neither! If the candidates tie 269-269 then Congress would decide the winner.

The 435 members of the House of Representatives would choose the next President from among the top 3 electoral vote getters. However, a special voting procedure is employed in this situation. Each state receives only one vote and the representatives from each state have to decide which candidate gets theirs. (For example, all 34 of Texas' representatives will vote individually. Then their votes are tallied. Which ever candidate receives a majority of these 32 votes wins Texas' one vote; if no candidate receives a majority of these 34 votes, Texas' one vote is not cast.) As long as members from at least 34 states are present, which ever candidate receives the votes of at least 26 states is declared the President. If no one reaches 26 votes, further balloting is done. (It took the Representatives 36 ballots over 6 days to reach a winner in the 1800 election!)

The 100 members of the Senate would choose the next Vice President from among the top 2 electoral vote getters. The voting procedure here is much more straightforward. At least 67 Senators must be present, and each person casts one vote. Which ever VP candidate receives at least 51 votes is declared the winner.

If you were paying close attention you might have noticed that it is possible for the president and vice president to be from different parties in this scenario!

Before 1824 popular vote totals weren't kept up with very well. My guesses on why this occured include:
a) several states didn't have popular votes;
b) most states didn't list all the candidates on their ballots;
c) officials back then may not have seen the historical value of preserving these records; and
d) before Andrew Jackson claimed to have been robbed of the election of 1824, most people didn't consider the popular vote count important since the Electoral College decided the presidency.

Most historians use 1824 as the starting date for popular vote returns because of, what a Congressional Quarterly publication calls, the "availability, accessibility, and quality" of the returns since then.

This quote is from a short article I wrote called "The electoral process before the 12th Amendment". The article attemptes to explain (apparently unsuccessfully!) how the Electoral College worked before being retooled in 1804.

It's a bit hard to explain, but easy to understand once you get it. Maybe an example would be easier to understand. Let's say there are 10 electors who each cast 2 votes. We will end up having 20 votes (10 electors x 2 votes each = 20). Using the criteria above, what is the number of votes required to win?

More than 10? No, that would be a majority of all 20 votes - that is not what we want. More than 5? Yes, that is the majority of the 10 electors.

Here's an actual example from 1796. That year there were 138 electors who each cast 2 votes for president, for a total of 276 electoral votes. John Adams was named president after winning 71 votes. 71 is not a majority of the 276 electoral votes cast. However, 71 is a majority from the 138 electors.

In the first presidential election the states used several different methods of choosing electors. In Connecticut, Georgia, New Jersey, New York, and South Carolina the state legislature chose the electors. Maryland and Pennsylvania had a statewide popular vote. Delaware and Virginia had a district by district popular vote. New Hampshire and Massachusetts used a mix of popular vote and legislature choice.

On February 4, 1789, 69 electors met in their states. Since this was before the 12th Amendment, each elector voted for 2 different people for President. Washington was one of the names on every ballot and is therefore considered to have been elected unanimously.

The Constitution does not require states to award electors in a "winner take all" fashion. Article II of the Constitution states that:

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors..."

So if a state wants to use a "winner take all" system they may. Technically if a state's legislature wanted to cancel their election and flip a coin to determine electors they could! Though I doubt those legislatures would be in office for long!